Saturday, November 22, 2008

Universal Question Solved by Math

I think a universal question is, how the hell did I (insert yourself here) get so lucky to exist on this perfect planet in the middle of a universe otherwise devoid of life? I believe it's the inability to rationally answer questions like this that push people toward religious superstition.

Answer:

Bayes rule tells us the probability of something (A) given that we know something else happened (B):




For example, I ask what is the probability that I am so lucky to exist on this microscopic paradise (A) given that I know I exist on this rare planet (B).

P("Lucky"|"Know") = P("Lucky" && "Know")/P("Know")

But since everyone who was lucky enough to live on Earth knows they exist,
P("Lucky" && "Know") = P("Know")
=> P("Lucky"|"Know") = P("Know")/P("Know") = 1

So as long as you're conscious to know that you have been blessed to live against all odds, it's a trivial conclusion.

1 comment:

  1. Cool Idea. I hate to say it but shouldn't it be

    P("Lucky" && "Know") = P("Lucky")
    =>
    P("Lucky"|"Know") = P("Lucky")

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